Hello Measured Investors,

Welcome to The Measured Memo – a concise note that shares our perspective on private investing and income-producing assets. We aim to make this the most value-packed investing email of your quarter…let’s go!

Market

One of our favorite phrases at Measured Capital is “follow the money.” It’s the most reliable way to cut through complexity, understand motivations, and uncover real opportunities. When you know where the money is going, you know what’s really happening. That’s why forensic auditors use it to uncover fraud and pollsters use it to see who is really backing who during an election. We have found it applies just as clearly to capital markets and real estate investing.

Which is why today’s note focuses on the rebalancing that we see happening across the investment landscape right now. In the past 9 months, Blackstone has acquired more than $10B worth of multifamily assets, KKR has purchased in excess of $5B of apartments and Brookfield has deployed over $1B to acquire rental housing portfolios.

The reality is that the stock market (and many other financial assets) have seen outsized gains in the last 2 years. History and the reality of market cycles teach us that eventually, those assets will revert back to historical trends. Meanwhile, commercial real estate values are down 20-30% across the board.

The biggest and smartest investors are taking the gains they can realize in the equity markets and are redeploying them into high-quality real estate at low cost bases. The acquisitions above point to a broad consensus that rent growth is set return, and now is the time to secure assets at a discount.

Strategy

Our response to the observation above is simple: we plan to follow the money too! Just as these institutions and their clients are doing, we are heads down looking for assets that make sense to help our investors rebalance their portfolios.

As we’ve described before, we believe deeply that this comes down to focus and conviction. We’re not going after “commercial real estate”. No – we’re looking for 50 to 150 unit communities, built after 1980, located in high growth secondary markets where we have a competitive advantage in sourcing and operations.

Additionally, we are studying the forward-looking data and gaining confidence in that strategy due to a major storyline: construction starts has fallen off a cliff. To use a relevant example, the city of Jacksonville delivered an average of 7,000 new apartment units in each of the last two years – 14,000 units total. New units permitted to be built in the next two years? Less than 5,000, combined. That’s a 65% reduction in new supply in a market that shows no signs of slowing it’s long-term population growth.

This story is consistent with many growth markets around the country. There was a building boom when credit was cheap. Most markets have absorbed the new inventory created, but the process of leasing up all those new buildings put negative pressure on local rents and occupancy.

Moving forward, as the chart below highlights, with so few new projects going up in most cities over the next 24 to 36 months – the trend will reverse and the lack of new supply will put upward pressure on rents and increase occupancy levels as the demand from renters continues to grow at it’s normal pace.

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Portfolio

In our own effort to rebalance, Measured Capital has completed two transactions in past quarter – one acquisition called AVT2 and one assignment known as WACO2. Both of these show the promise of opportunity that the current cycle is presenting.

For AVT2, we’ve closed on a 38-unit community built in 1986 with the highest in-place Cap Rate we’ve seen since starting this business: 7.3%. This means we’ve got strong income before completing any of the value-add cycle. We also secured a 5.95% fixed rate loan for 7 years, producing positive leverage, a tenant of our investing thesis.

Importantly, due to some last minute changes to the loan structure, we have one investor equity slot available in this deal ($100k). If you are interested in participating, please reach out to me directly.

Our other portfolio update comes from Texas and the city of Waco. However, rather than ending in the “we’ve got 100 more units!” story that usually follows getting a property under contract, this deal has a very different ending. After two months of winding negotiations between multiple parties, we reached an agreement with Baylor University to assign the purchase agreement so they can own the land and buildings long-term. This was the best outcome for the city, the university and frankly, for our team.

Last week, Baylor closed on the deal which marks the first “sale” of a property by Measured Capital. Looks like we’ve gone full cycle on a deal, and never even took possession!

Looking ahead, we’ve got offers out on multiple attractive properties that we’d love to add to our portfolio and, as always, we’ll be as patient as the market requires us to be.

 References

• Ready, Set, Invest: A High Achiever's Guide to Private Real Estate Investing – we’re a tad bias but giving this one a big recommendation. It’s a collection of lessons and ideas for private investors, told through stories of professional experience and building of a real estate portfolio.
• History Repeats Itself? – Slowing multifamily housing starts will lead to outsized rent growth & investment opportunities as new cycle begins in 2026-28 following the current late-cycle supply wave.
• National Multifamily Housing Council 2025 Takeaways – Supply has peaked and is trending downward with little chance of rapid re-acceleration. Apartment demand is strong, and most believe rents have bottomed,

Thanks for reading. At Measured Capital, we are committed to always putting ourselves in the place of highest potential – which for us, often means connecting with like-minded investors like you.

Please forward this note to any trusted friend you feel could benefit as well. We welcome your feedback and are grateful for your trust.

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Best,

Dan & Greg